Military activities in the Strait of Hormuz are raising bets on oil prices, with WTI crude hitting $160 in April at 1.4% YES.

Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria leads with 44.5% in the parliamentary election. Radev to be next prime minister at 95.3% YES.

The US captured an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman, and Tehran has threatened retaliation. The ceasefire-by-April-30 ...

Oil prices rose due to Middle East instability and an uncertain US-Iran ceasefire. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April at 1.4 ...

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, trapping sailors and halting transit. Fewer than 10 ships to transit from April 13-19 at ...

Pope Leo XIV condemned the US missile strike on an Iranian school, with the market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 at ...

Large pro-government rallies in Tehran indicate strong regime support. Odds for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 at 4% ...

US-Iran tensions rise, affecting Bank of Japan rate cut speculation. Rate cut after April 2026 meeting at 0.1% YES.

US-Iran diplomatic gaps are narrowing. No qualifying meeting by June 30 at 3.7% YES; Bitcoin above $62K on April 18 at 99.9% ...

S&P 500 hits record high amid US-Israel-Iran conflict and oil at $96. Market for higher open on April 17 at 100% YES.

US naval blockade of Iran continues, making military action unlikely before April 2026. Military action ends by April 30 at ...

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil transit. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April now at 1.4% YES.